The Former President's Ukrainian Peace Plan Represents a Benefit to Vladimir Putin

Initially, the former US president appeared to embrace a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "severe ramifications" in August in case Putin continued blocking ceasefire negotiations, he ultimately imposed major restrictions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to support his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, which was developed by both nations' representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has clearly returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Favoring Invasion

This initiative would essentially benefit Putin for invading a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Although ringing declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the proposal effectively compromise that very independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the president. But, Putin's invasion is not only about dominating a charred region of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it no longer functions as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that Putin's increasing autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although keeping in place the currently divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a decade of warfare, this concession would make Ukrainian defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that represent a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Russian forces a open route to Kyiv in case he subsequently opt to restart the war.

Military Reductions

Then, in a step that would make additional hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to reduce the numbers of its troops from their present large number personnel to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no such constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, the proposal states: "Every radical ideology and practices must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no requirement that Putin risk his dictatorship by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's borders in return for giving up its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should the international community believe Russia on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external defense commitments. Although the initiative promises a "strong joint armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics range from vague to concerning. The plan would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his diminished forces, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

A separate parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "major, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. Yet in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable protection against additional invasion – the success of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of Western powers, like Trump, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not