Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
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