Only 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.
He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.
How was your election night?
It was necessary because they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes that came in after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.
You know, there was a world where election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.
Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?
He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.
He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs
There were also some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?
It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year went for the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.
One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?
Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to win.
You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?
Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.
Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.
He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.
What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?
In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.
Prior to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?
There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.
Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?
Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.
However I believe that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.
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