Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Alert

A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."