Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Fall Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical count of per-day killings monthly in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh government data. But, public safety analysts have warned that homicide data may not indicate better national security.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded in these past months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the lowest amount of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly militarised operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main components of the President's safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that relying on murder data to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is especially true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was also an issue because it might mask periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to show their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.